Research

We study the evolution of manufacturing value added shares in 11 sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries through the lens of an open economy model of structural change. Our analysis leverages recent developments in input-output tables in SSA countries. Our model allows for income effects via non-homothetic preferences, substitution and relative price effects, as well as comparative advantage and specialization effects. We calibrate our model to include each SSA country with nine other major economies for each year between 2000 and 2018. We also do a similar set of calibrations for 11 developing Asia (DA) countries. Our main results are that domestic and foreign sectoral TFP matter. Trade integration over time plays only a small role. However, trade as a transmission mechanism is important. Finally, the drivers and mechanisms of industrialization are similar in low-income SSA and DA countries.

In this paper, we combine georeferenced temperature data with newly released learning data from 8 West and Central African (WCA) countries in the Programme on the Analysis of Education Systems (PASEC). In the first part of the paper, we provide benchmark estimates of the effect of high temperatures on learning outcomes in WCA, thus providing an important comparison point with other parts of the world. We find preliminary evidence of a temperature-learning gradient with higher temperatures associated with worse math and reading scores for students in our sample.

We study how heat over early childhood affects foundational numeracy in ten sub-Saharan African countries. We link the sixth round of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS6), which tests children aged 7 to 14 at home, to daily ERA5 temperatures, and follow each child’s exposure to hot days from conception to the test date, comparing children born at different times in the same location. A one standard deviation increase in hot days lowers numeracy by 0.014 SD in the first 1,000 days and by 0.012 SD at ages 2 to 5, about one month of learning in each case; heat after age 6 has no detectable effect. The similar effects in both windows point to accumulation rather than a single sensitive period. The timing of heat determines who bears the cost: losses from heat in the first 1,000 days are similar across households, while losses from preschool-age heat fall on poorer, rural, and male children and children of less-educated mothers. Sibling comparisons suggest that parents respond to heat in the preschool years, shifting more-exposed children toward private or religious schools, but not to heat in the first 1,000 days.

This paper examines the effect of heat on children’s executive function behavior in Ghana. Executive function behavior reflects the ability to stay focused regardless of external stimuli. Heat may act as a stimulus and affect executive function behavior through changes in brain chemistry and functioning, leading to decreases in attention, memory, information retention and processing. Using rich longitudinal data on children, this paper estimates child fixed-effects models to obtain the contemporaneous effect of temperature on executive function behavior and tests scores. The results suggest that a deviation from the reference temperature bin (24-26°C) decreases children’s executive function. Specifically, at 33-35°C, these results correspond to an increase in the likelihood of being never attentive. The paper also finds that relatively poorer children are more affected. There is no effect on test scores, but since exam are not timed, test scores could reflect both skills and effort in this context.

I exploit the variation among potential primary school graduating cohorts by taking advantage of a subsidy given to girls to attend secondary school in Benin starting from 2010. I investigated the effect of the policy on Educational outcomes. Preliminary findings suggest that the policy increases primary school completion by 6 percentage points and increases grade 7 enrolment (secondary school) by 5 percentage points.